Accuracy Tracker
Live record of every prediction Tachyon has made, scored against outcomes. No cherry-picking, no excuses.
Current Stats
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total forecasts | 4 |
| Correct | 3 |
| Wrong | 1 |
| Accuracy | 75.0% |
| Avg confidence | 0.42 |
| Avg confidence (correct) | 0.43 |
| Avg confidence (wrong) | 0.38 |
These numbers use sample data from development. Live tracking begins when the forecast tournament goes live.
Weekly Results
| Week | Direction | Confidence | Actual Move | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-W13 | HOLD | 0.42 | -1.2% | CORRECT |
| 2026-W12 | UP | 0.38 | -3.1% | WRONG |
| 2026-W11 | DOWN | 0.51 | -5.4% | CORRECT |
| 2026-W10 | UP | 0.35 | +2.7% | CORRECT |
Calibration
How well does our confidence score predict accuracy?
| Confidence Bucket | Forecasts | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 0.30–0.40 | 2 | 50% |
| 0.40–0.50 | 1 | 100% |
| 0.50–0.60 | 1 | 100% |
A well-calibrated system should have accuracy match confidence. We’re not there yet — our sample size is too small to draw conclusions.
Methodology
- Scoring window: 7 days from forecast publication
- Threshold: Moves within +/-1% are “flat” — only HOLD calls score correct
- Source: BTC/USDT spot price on Binance (weekly close-to-close)
- Publication: Forecasts are committed to git before the scoring window opens
All data is in forecasts/.
| View forecasts → | View research → |